"Black Swan" Risk
I am not sure who originally brought up the "Black Swan" metaphor, but the philosopher Karl Popper definitly is a major contributor. He used the metaphor extensively when arguing that a scientific idea can never be proven true, because no matter how many observations seem to agree with it, it may still be wrong. On the other hand, a single contrary experiment can prove a theory forever false.
Nassim Nicholas Taleb (a big fan of Karl Popper) uses the expression "Black Swan" to characterize large-impact, hard-to-predict, and rare events beyond normal expectations. As mostly "adverse" events are discussed, one can speak of "Black Swan Risk".
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...Fat Tails...
...Kurtosis...
...Information Efficiency...
...Modeling "Black Swan Risk"...
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